Eight years after the NATO intervention, the final status of Kosovo is still undefined. The concerned parties have been negotiating this issue for some years, but the resolution of the question is predictable: namely, Kosovo will secede from Serbia in the near future. However, according to the recent situation, three states exist in Kosovo, despite the lack of one strong administration. Kosovo is a United Nations-administrated territory with appropriate administrative institutions, but, on a lower level, it has its own parliament and government; furthermore, under international law, the province belongs to Serbia. The clarification of the status of Kosovo is a fundamental issue because Kosovo has the ability to become a strong state and a potential to strengthen the economy.  

The processes in Kosovo are extremely complicated, but two main transitions are clearly visible. One of them— which is so significant that it influences all of the social and economic situations in the region— is directly related to the youth of Kosovo. 25% of the 2 million inhabitants of the province are under the age of 25, which means Kosovo is one of the youngest regions in Europe. The other transition taking place is that of the politics and economy of the province. Kosovo has moved toward democracy slowly but steadily, but since the end of the 1999 conflict, the economic situation of the territory is terrible. With its 1100 Euros per capita GDP, Kosovo is the most undeveloped region of Europe. According to different estimates, the unemployment rate is approximately 35-55%, and we have not spoken about the lack of infrastructure. 

Another serious problem is the ethnic fragileness in the Kosovar society between the Albanians and the Serbs. The Albanians, who constitute 90% of the population, already consider themselves independent, and have made it clear that they will also secede legally from Serbia within a short time. Contrarily, a fully independent Kosovo is unacceptable for the Kosovar Serbs. They identify themselves as being part of Serbia, and their officials, teachers, and many other employees receive money from the Serbian government. The two ethnic groups live in two totally different realities, which can be a great problem in the future of Kosovo. The separation of the two is so deep that nobody has heard about a Serbian-Albanian mixed marriage since 1999, and the former mixed marriages have ended as well. The most problematic situation is in the Northern part of Kosovo in Mitrovica, which is the biggest Serbian enclave. The city is split between Albanians and Serbians by a river, and the only bridge is under the control of the UN forces. Despite the security, the people do not go to the other side because they are afraid of the atrocities. Fortunately, the situation is not so critical on the whole territory of Kosovo, and it seems the overture between the two ethnic groups has begun. In June, a football championship was held for Serbian-Albanian mixed teams, which was a very successful initiative toward a peaceful life. Another positive example is a small village called Vica, where Serbs and Albanians live and trade together without having any serious trouble. However, they acknowledge the relationship between them was much better before the war.

We can see that the inhabitants of Kosovo face enormous economic and social challenges, but the prolonged debate on the status of the territory effectively delays any of the needed reforms. A strong executive power (which either would have the power to collect the taxes effectively, to do something with the huge black economy, or to create acceptable conditions for foreign investment) cannot come into existence as long as Kosovo does not have clear status. If it is unclear which government (Serbian? Kosovar?) or organization (UN? EU?) will lead the territory in five years, the situation remains too risky for companies to invest in Kosovo. Without foreign investments, Kosovo cannot rise to its feet.

If we consider all of the previous points, the sensible improving of the economic situation in Kosovo can be surprising. A lot of new buildings are being constructed, some braver foreign companies have appeared during the last few years, and direct flight has been working between New York and Pristina since the first half of 2007. According to Philip Sigwart, Chief Executive Officer of ProCredit Bank, the development of Kosovo will be very rapid after the clarification of its status but, through the uncertain situation, substantial foreign direct investments have failed as of yet. Even so, the GDP growth was demonstrable last year— for the first time since the war— which is a great result, especially if we take into consideration that half of the Kosovar economy works “in the shadow.”

The inhabitants of Kosovo are awaiting an economic rise due to foreign capital, which includes the investments of the multinational companies and the remittances of the 500 thousand Kosovar emigrants in Western Europe and North America. The latter is a very important source because, according to the IMF, the remittances for Kosovo in 2006 was a projected 316 million Euros. The bauxite fields in Northern Kosovo are one of the richest in Europe, but the mines have not worked since the end of the war.

30 thousand young employees—1.5% of the population— enter the labor market every year. The vast numbers of the younger citizens in the workforce are becoming more and more educated; therefore they can help the future of the Kosovar state. However, it is a very controversial phenomenon, because on the one hand a better-educated group has been emerging, but on the other hand, the young people can supplant the older unqualified age groups from the jobs, which can cause a different kind of trouble. Another problem is that, because of the high unemployment rate, young, flexible people with competitive knowledge want to emigrate abroad. But how can the future be built without the most valuable stratum of the society?

Despite the many difficulties they face, the Kosovars are one of the most optimistic communities in the world. One of the sources of this phenomenon is the large number of young people, who usually see the future in a much more positive way than their elders do. Besides, the Kosovar Alban community has been living through its most important historical “moment”, the creation of its own independent state. The international presence in Kosovo is very strong, so the people living there recognize that many countries, organizations and people are taking care of them. These are the reasons why the Kosovar people believe that a better life is possible, but without the necessary status, they cannot begin to build their own future.

References:

UNDP Kosovo. (2006). A New Generation for a New Kosovo. Human Development Report 2006. Prishtina: Kosovo. Grafika Rezniqi

Hyseni Y., Duri I., Haskuka M. (2007). Early Warning Report Kosovo; Report # 17. April-June 2007. United Nations Development Program Kosovo. From:

http://www.kosovo.undp.org/repository/docs/EWR17_eng_1.pdf

United Nations Security Council: Resolution 1244 http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N99/172/89/PDF/N9917289.pdf?OpenElement

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