International Affairs Journal at UC Davis - South Korea: Will a New President be Enough?

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January 2007

South Korea: Will a New President be Enough?

Written by Daisy Kim

Tuesday, 09 January 2007

On December 19, 2007, the Republic of Korea will choose a new president and bring an end to the five-year contentious tenure of incumbent President Roh Moo-Hyun. In the beginning, Roh Moo-Hyun’s presidency brought hope to the public of changing the face and nature of South Korea’s highly contested democracy on a progressive and populist platform. As the first President with a non-elite background, neither rich nor elite-educated, Roh was originally perceived as the people’s President. Yet, nearly five years later, South Korea’s populace is sick and tired of President Roh and his ruling Uri Party. Today, the only hope for the domestic political scene is the opportunity to pass the public mandate to a new face that can revamp and reunify South Korea’s dejected and disgraced political leadership.

But is a new face enough to overcome the public’s jadedness?

The public’s disappointment in President Roh is deep-seated and pervasive. In many ways, Roh’s presidency has been marked by poor decision making and leadership, often regarding cabinet personnel choices as well as breaking of campaign promises. The greatest dip in Roh’s approval rating came in the spring of 2005 when the Uri party lost in every electoral district in the April bi-elections. In large part, the disapproval came from Roh’s controversial decision to dispatch troops to Iraq; the public’s feeling of betrayal was particularly acute, and damaged the President’s image, as he had supported an anti-American platform when first entering office. Moreover, many have disapproved of the Roh Administration’s policy toward North Korea, which has been single-handedly weak and ineffective in dealing with the nuclear issue. But most recently, Roh has been criticized for the slumbering state of the economy. Although South Korea currently enjoys a growth rate of around four percent, for the average person, the economy simply has not been growing fast enough. Despite a comparatively low overall unemployment rate, many, especially recent college graduates, complain about the difficulty of finding adequate work. Experts have expressed concern that export growth as well as foreign direct investment is shrinking and will continue to do so.

As such, speculations for the next president have been steadily building force, especially given the fluid and dynamic nature of South Korea’s party politics. With President Roh’s unpopularity remaining strong, the progressive Uri Party began maneuvering to distance itself from Roh in an attempt to reign in the damage to its image and reputation. At a lawmaker’s workshop at the National Assembly last week, Uri Party Chairman Kim Geun-Tae and ex-Chairman Chung Dong-Young reached an agreement to launch a new party. Most experts guess that the most likely scenario will be a Uri and Democratic Party merge that would put forth Goh Kun, the popular and well-respected ex-prime minister, as its candidate. At this juncture, Goh is not a member of any party. Moreover, the public feud between Roh and Goh over the President’s reference to his cabinet appointment of Goh as a “failure,” is a likely indicator that many allegiances of Uri members have shifted from Roh to Goh. It is expected that the future--or end-- of the Uri Party will become clearer after February 14, when the next party convention will be held.

Given the Uri Party’s current instability and lack of popular support, the main opposition party, the Grand National Party (GNP) has a clear advantage-- assuming it remains united after choosing a candidate. The conservative GNP, with its image of moderation, yet principled policy, particularly on the economy and on North Korea, may be the panacea that the public is looking for as a cure to political disillusionment.

At present, the leading candidate is former Seoul mayor, Lee Myung-bak, whose popular support averaged nearly 42 percent last week, according to most public opinion polls conducted by media outlets. Lee’s favorable image comes, in large part, from his background as an ex-CEO of Hyundai Construction group, and his successful overhaul of the public transportation infrastructure of Seoul. Within the GNP, his main rival is lawmaker and former chairwoman, Park Geun-hye, who is also the daughter of President Park Chung-hee (1961-1979), under whose leadership South Korea transformed into one of the four Asian Tiger economies. Although Park enjoys considerable support, she has been criticized for seeming inflexible and doctrinaire. Moreover, her current support rate is in the twenty percent range, nearly half of her rival’s support rate. Regardless of how things stand now, the GNP candidacy is open to contestation until June, when the GNP will hold a national convention to pick its candidate. It is the aftermath of the convention— i.e. whether Lee and Park can cooperate and consolidate their support bases— that will hinge on whether the GNP can optimize its chances for securing the presidency.

As to foreign policy, the presidency in South Korea is a powerful, influential institution and, as such, the next President and his party will have considerable sway in shaping the direction of North Korea policy and relations with its neighbors and the U.S. The current administration’s reluctance to act upon a coherent policy has brought strains to the U.S.-ROK bilateral relationship, while leaving it an ineffectual and inconsequential player in the six party talks. In light of a nearly defunct six-party talks mechanism, a competent and unified South Korean leadership will become increasingly important in influencing the direction of the U.S.-North Korean relationship.

Meanwhile, it remains doubtful if President Roh will learn his lesson before his tenure is over, and opt to stay out of the limelight. Whoever becomes the next president, it will be difficult for him or her to re-gain the public trust, given the deep-seated nature of frustration and disappointment in the President. At the very least, it will be an improvement for many to see Roh gone.